Forex | Forex Trading and Exchange Rates Services http://www.cutlinks.com Forex | Forex Trading and Exchange Rates Services Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:53 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 Pound Rallies To A New 19-Month High Against The Euro Following Strong UK Employment Data And BoE Minutes http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2490 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2490#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:53 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2490 Continue reading →]]> Investors holding Sterling had been waiting a long time for a strong piece of data to emanate from the UK economy, then yesterday morning two encouraging releases came along at the same time.
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<br>The Bank of England minutes for April’s meeting caught many analysts on the back foot when they revealed that only one member of the nine-man committee had voted in favour of an extension to the Bank’s QE programme. In recent months, two members, Adam Posen and David Miles, had voted for an increase to the £325bn fund allocated to the ongoing asset purchase programme. It appears that committee members remain fearful of a resurgence in the domestic rate of inflation following Tuesday’s data which showed an increase in the rate of UK price rises.
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<br>UK employment data, released at the same time as the BoE minutes yesterday morning, showed a surprise decrease in the total level of British unemployment last month. The figures showed that UK joblessness had dropped by some 35,000 in March, to leave the aggregate level at 2.65bn.
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<br>The positive news from the UK economy saw the GBP EUR exchange rate break the 1.2200 level for teh first time since August 2010, to break to a new 19-month high at 1.2234.
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<br>Elsewhere, weak Chinese housing sector data and ongoing concerns about the creditworthiness of several eurozone states continued to weigh heavily on investors’ minds, causing a ‘risk-off’ trading environment which manifested itself in losses for global equities on the day. This factor, combined with improved sentiment regarding the Pound, helped to take the GBP AUD exchange rate to close to 1.5500 during yesterday’s European trading session. The GBP NZD exchange rate enjoyed similar gains on the day, gaining well over 1% by the middle part of yesterday’s North American session to break through the 1.9600 level.
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<br>Today sees a relatively quiet day for data releases, with the main risk event coming in the form of the latest Spanish bond auction, which is sure to have a strong bearing on appetite for risk during the remainder of this week’s session.
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]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2490 0 Daily Currency Rate Predictions For The US Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling and Singapore Dollar http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2489 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2489#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:53 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2489 Continue reading →]]> The POUND STERLING has jumped in value on the day, following UK employment data which showed that the number of unemployed in Britain had unexpectedly dropped back to 2.65m last month. This morning’s Bank of England minutes, which showed that only one member of the nine-man MPC had voted in favour of an extension to the Bank’s QE programme this month, provided further support for the Pound, which currently trades on a firmly POSITIVE footing.
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<br>European stocks have incurred losses on the day, causing the safe-haven US DOLLAR to be supported during the early part of today’s session. However, the Greenback still lost ground against the go-ahead Pound, taking the GBP USD exchange rate to its current level of 1.5981. Disappointing Chinese housing market data, released during last night’s Asian session, has raised the potential for Dollar upside, meaning that the US currency heads into tomorrow’s session on a NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE footing.
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<br>The EURO has leaked support once more today, after Italy’s government announced a significant reduction in its 2012 GDP Growth forecast. The current GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.2216 following this bout of euro-weakness. Tomorrow morning’s auction of 2-year and 10-year bonds will be closely-monitored. In the meantime, the single currency is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing.
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<br>The SINGAPORE DOLLAR has been out of favour in the currency markets since the market re-opened on Sunday night, taking the GBP SGD exchange rate to 2.0034. Poor domestic export figures, released earlier this week, hurt the SGD and today’s ‘risk-off’ trading environment in Asian markets has added to the downside pressure on the Singie, which is expected to trade with a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias in the near-term.
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]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2489 0 Weekly Forex Market Forecast (April 16th – April 20th 2012) http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2488 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2488#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2488 Continue reading →]]> Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of April 16th – April 20th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, April 16th

  • 12:30pm USD Core Retail Sales (0.6%, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm USD Retail Sales (0.4%, > good for currency)
  • 1:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases (41.3B, > good for currency)

Tuesday, April 17th

  • 1:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 8:30am GBP CPI (3.5%, > good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (20.2, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm USD Building Permits (0.71M, > good for currency)
  • 1:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:00pm CAD Overnight Rate (1.00%, > good for currency)

Wednesday, April 18th

  • 8:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (6.6K, > good for currency)
  • 8:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9, > good for currency)
  • 2:30pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 10:45pm NZD CPI (0.6%, > good for currency)

Thursday, April 19th

  • 12:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (370K, > good for currency)
  • 2:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (4.62M, > good for currency)
  • 2:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12.1, > good for currency)

Friday, April 20th

  • 8:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (109.6, > good for currency)
  • 8:30am GBP Retail Sales (0.4%, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm CAD Core CPI (0.3%, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3133/59, 1.3186/97, 1.3211/12, 1.3251, 1.3284/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.
Above: 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.3055, 1.3032/34, 1.3000/25, 1.2946/83 and 1.2917.
Below: 1.2886, 1.2857/77 and 1.2623/65.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 81.14, 81.30, 81.46, 81.76/96, 82.01/22, 82.53, 82.64, 83.01/09, 83.17, 83.37, 83.77, 83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51 and 85.92.
Above: 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:
Initial: 80.82, 80.56/58, 80.22, 80.00, 79.96, 79.83, 79.52, 79.40, 79.05, 78.66, 78.06/28.
Below: 77.00/89, 76.73/83, 76.41, 76.10, 76.02, 75.94 and 75.56/70.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5890, 1.5907, 1.5921/27, 1.5983/90, 1.6035, 1.6061, 1.6092, 1.6109, 1.6128, 1.6164 and 1.6192.
Above: 1.6452/74, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616 and 1.6745.

Support:
Initial: 1.5804/07, 1.5717/81, 1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5643/47, 1.5624/29, 1.5601 and 1.5516/85.
Below: 1.5465/99, 1.5422, 1.5410, 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000. 

AUDUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0384, 1.0422, 1.0444/51, 1.0498, 1.0508, 1.0556, 1.0596, 1.0608, 1.0627/38, 1.0654, 1.0668/70 and 1.0686.
Above: 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842, 1.0854, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0334, 1.0303, 1.0266, 1.0242, 1.0224/29, 1.0216 and 1.0100/16.
Below: 1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.

USDCAD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9997, 1.0018/78, 1.0105/42, 1.0160/99, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302 and 1.0334/37.
Above: 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 0.9947/69, 0.9924/27, 0.9906, 0.9828/99 and 0.9724/96.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8240/62, 0.8279, 0.8294, 0.8317, 0.8339, 0.8378, 0.8395, 0.8405, 0.8420/27 and 0.8504.
Above: 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.8227, 0.8204, 0.8123, 0.8115, 0.8109, 0.8135, 0.8057/99, 0.7993/96, 0.7979, 0.7955 and 0.7906.
Below: 0.7804/88, 0.7723/95, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.

]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2488 0 Jump in UK Inflation Helps Sterling to Euro Exchange Rate Climb http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2487 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2487#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2487 Continue reading →]]> The future direction of UK monetary policy grabbed the headlines in the currency markets during yesterday’s trading session, as the latest British inflation figures showed a surprise hike in the rate of domestic price rises. March’s headline CPI inflation number showed at an annualised 3.5%, up from February’s counterpart number of 3.4%. Analysts had been expecting the figure to remain at 3.4%, so the release provided some upside for the Pound on the day.
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<br>The British government’s self-imposed inflation target remains at 2.0%, so the fact that the current rate of price rises is 75% above this level provides considerable food for thought for the Bank of England’s policy-makers. We will learn more about their thinking later this morning, with the release of the minutes of the most recent BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting. In practice, with persistent British price rises still being blamed on exogenous factors, primarily the rising cost of imported foodstuffs and raw materials, it seems unlikely that the minutes will reveal that the nine-man committee openly considered a rise in UK interest rates. However, the fact that domestic inflation is edging higher may colour the committees thinking on the potential for an extension to the Bank’s existing £325bn QE programme. Any comments from the MPC suggesting that its Asset Purchase Programme may be kept to £325bn would be likely to trigger support for Sterling in the near-term.
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<br>Elsewhere, yesterday’s Spanish bond auction saw a good uptake for the fiscally-challenged Iberian state’s government debt. This, in turn, caused the yield on Spanish bonds to drop back below 6% – a level which had been breached in the early part of this week’s session. If today brings a further move lower for Spanish yields, then the euro is likely to push on, giving the potential for the GBP EUR exchange rate to re-trace back down towards the psychologically significant 1.2000 level.

]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2487 0 Weekly Forex Market Followup (April 9th – April 13th 2012) http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2486 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2486#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2486 Continue reading →]]> Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of April 9th through April 13th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 9th through April 13th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, April 9th

  • 12:50am JPY Current Account 0.85T versus 0.66T expected. The currency was unchanged.
  • 2:30am CNY CPI 3.6% versus 3.4% expected.
  • 3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey. The currency fell.

Tuesday, April 10th

  • 12:15am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke said that, “the growth of what has been termed “shadow banking” creates additional potential channels for the propagation of shocks through the financial system and the economy. Shadow banking refers to the intermediation of credit through a collection of institutions, instruments, and markets that lie at least partly outside of the traditional banking system.” The currency rose overall.
  • 4:03am CNY Trade Balance 5.4B versus -3.0B expected.
  • 4:09am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “the Board decided to express “the price stability goal in the medium to long term” in specific inflation rates by making some allowances as “a positive range of 2 percent or lower in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI.” Within this range, the Board decided to set a goal at 1 percent for the time being to clarify the inflation rate which the Bank’s monetary policy aims to achieve.” The currency rose.
  • 4:09am JPY Overnight Call Rate was at <0.10%, as expected.
  • 8:31am JPY BOJ Press Conference – BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa stated that, “Looking back at currency and share moves since February, there was investors’ shift away from the yen, which had previously been bought as a safe haven asset, and into other currencies due to subsiding tail risk related to Europe. In that broad trend, the BOJ’s monetary easing produced effects.”
  • 11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence 13 versus last 0. The currency fell.

Wednesday, April 11th

  • 5:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report noted that, “Japan’s economy is expected to return to a moderate recovery path as the pace of recovery in overseas economies picks up, led by emerging and commodity-exporting economies, and as reconstruction-related demand after the earthquake disaster gradually strengthens.” The currency fell.
  • 6:00pm USD Fed Beige Book noted that, “Economic activity expanded at a moderate pace. Despite higher energy prices, overall price pressures remained modest as did wage gains. Retail sales and demand for business and consumer services rose. Activity in housing markets strengthened modestly.” The currency fell overall.

Thursday, April 12th

  • 2:30am AUD Employment Change 44.0K versus 6.7K expected. The currency rose.
  • 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.2% versus 5.3% expected.
  • 1:30am CAD Trade Balance 0.3B versus 2.2B expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30am USD PPI 0.0% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell overall.
  • 1:30am USD Trade Balance -46.0B versus -51.9B expected.
  • 1:30am USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 380K versus 355K expected.

Friday, April 13th

  • 3:00am CNY GDP 8.1% versus 8.4% expected.
  • 9:30am GBP PPI Input 1.9% versus 1.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2%, as expected. The currency rose overall.
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey 75.7 versus 76.5 expected.
  • 6:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke has not yet spoken.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 1.3120 open to a 1.3078 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly Lower from an 81.48 open to an 80.92 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 1.5887 open to a 1.5852 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 1.0295 open to a 1.0361 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9970 open to a 0.9978 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 0.8169 open to a 0.8232 close

]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2486 0 Tuesday’s Foreign Currency Rate Forecasts For The Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar and Indian Rupee http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2485 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2485#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2485 Continue reading →]]> This morning’s German ZEW Sentiment Survey beat expectations, proving some positive news for the EURO. A strong uptake for Spanish treasury bills at today’s auction also helped steady investors’ frayed nerves. The GBP EUR exchange rate currently stands at 1.2147 and the single currency is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL footing in the near-term.
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<br>UK inflation data, released earlier today, surprised analysts by coming out higher than had been anticipated, providing support for the POUND STERLING in early trading. This may limit the Bank of England monetary policy committee’s scope to extend its current QE programme – we will learn more tomorrow morning, when the minutes of April’s MPC committee are released. Until then, Sterling trades with a NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE bias.
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<br>The US DOLLAR has given up ground against the majority of the other majors during today’s session. A strong performance from European equities markets following a downward move in the yields paid by Spain’s government on its bonds, has buoyed investor sentiment, while stronger than expected US Building Permits data for March, has also increased appetite for risk. The current GBP USD exchange rate is 1.5934 and the Dollar is expected to trade on a NEGATIVE footing in the near-term.
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<br>The INDIAN RUPEE has once again leaked support during this week’s session, taking the GBP INR exchange rate to 82.0335. A surprise 50 basis point cut in India’s key lending rate overnight by the country’s central bank has elicited downside pressure on the Rupee. It was the first rate cut in three years by the RBI, so the INR is expected to trade with a NEGATIVE bias moving forward.
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]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2485 0 Weekly Forex Market Forecast (April 9th – April 13th 2012) http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2484 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2484#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2484 Continue reading →]]> Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of April 9th – April 13th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, April 8th

  • All Day NZD Bank Holiday
  • All Day AUD Bank Holiday
  • 11:50pm JPY Current Account (0.66T, > good for currency)

Monday, April 9th

  • All Day CHF Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR French, German and Italian Bank Holiday
  • All Day GBP Bank Holiday
  • 1:30am CNY CPI (3.4%, > good for currency)
  • 2:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 11:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, April 10th

  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (-3.0B, > good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate (<0.10%, > good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 10:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence (last 0, > good for currency)

Wednesday, April 11th

  • 5:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 6:00pm USD Fed Beige Book (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, April 12th

  • 1:30am AUD Employment Change (6.7K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.3%, < good for currency)
  • 12:30pm CAD Trade Balance (2.2B, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm USD PPI (0.3%, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm USD Trade Balance (-51.9B, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (355K, < good for currency)

Friday, April 13th

  • 2:00am CNY GDP (8.4%, > good for currency)
  • 8:30am GBP PPI Input (1.3%, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm USD Core CPI (0.2%, > good for currency)
  • 1:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (76.5, > good for currency)
  • 5:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3133/59, 1.3186/97, 1.3211, 1.3251, 1.3284/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.
Above: 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.3055, 1.3034, 1.3000/25, 1.2946/83 and 1.2917.
Below: 1.2886, 1.2857/77 and 1.2623/65.

USDJPY: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 81.46, 81.76/96, 82.01/22, 82.53, 82.64, 83.01/09, 83.17, 83.37, 83.77, 83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51 and 85.92.
Above: 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:
Initial: 81.30, 81.14, 80.82, 80.58, 80.22, 80.00, 79.96, 79.83, 79.52, 79.40, 79.05, 78.66, 78.06/28.
Below: 77.00/89, 76.73/83, 76.41, 76.10, 76.02, 75.94 and 75.56/70.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5890, 1.5907, 1.5921/27, 1.5990, 1.6035, 1.6061, 1.6092, 1.6109, 1.6128, 1.6164 and 1.6192.
Above: 1.6452/74, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616 and 1.6745.

Support:
Initial: 1.5841, 1.5804, 1.5717/81, 1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5643/47, 1.5624/29, 1.5601 and 1.5516/85.
Below: 1.5465/99, 1.5422, 1.5410, 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000. 

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0303, 1.0334, 1.0384, 1.0422, 1.0444, 1.0498, 1.0508, 1.0556, 1.0596, 1.0608, 1.0627/38, 1.0654, 1.0668/70 and 1.0686.
Above: 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842, 1.0854, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0266, 1.0242, 1.0224/29, 1.0216 and 1.0100/16.
Below: 1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9997, 1.0018/78, 1.0105/42, 1.0160/99, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302 and 1.0334/37.
Above: 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 0.9947/69, 0.9924/27, 0.9906, 0.9828/99 and 0.9724/96.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8204, 0.8227, 0.8240/48, 0.8256, 0.8261/62, 0.8279, 0.8294, 0.8339, 0.8378, 0.8395, 0.8405, 0.8420/27 and 0.8504.
Above: 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.8123, 0.8115, 0.8109, 0.8135, 0.8057/99, 0.7993/96, 0.7979, 0.7955 and 0.7906.
Below: 0.7804/88, 0.7723/95, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.

]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2484 0 Strong US Retail Sales Numbers Cause Selling Pressure On The US Dollar http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2483 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2483#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2483 Continue reading →]]> Better than anticipated US retail sales numbers caught the attention during yesterday’s session in the currency markets. The American shop sales figures far outstripped expectations, showing a monthly increase of 0.8% in March, versus analysts’ expectations of a 0.3% print. A break-down of the data revealed that an uptick in the sales of garden equipment and construction materials, attributable to warmer than usual weather in the States last month, had helped push the figure higher. More cynical analysts will suggest that the increase in transactions in these two sectors was simply a case of US consumers ‘bringing forward’ purchases which they would have made anyway, later in the year. However, the fact that American shoppers are feeling confident enough to increase their aggregate expenditure bodes well for the future economic prospects for the world’s largest economy.
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<br>The encouraging US data had its usual effect of causing market participants to shift their funds out of US Dollar-denominated safety plays and into riskier asset classes, eliciting a weakening of the Greenback. This saw the GBP USD exchange rate to move away from its intra-day low of 1.5821 to edge towards the 1.5900 level as the European session came to an end.
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<br>However, the Dollar would surely have lost further ground on the day had it not been for increased concerns regarding Spain’s precarious financial position. The Madrid stock market plunged to its lowest level in three years following a statement from the country’s Finance Minister, which suggested that the Iberian state had most likely returned to recession for the second time in the last four years. This took the interest rate which Spain’s government pays on its national debt to above 6%. If Spanish debt yields rise above the key 7% level, then market participants are likely to succumb to all-out panic regarding a potential default, taking the US Dollar sharply higher and causing a pronounced move out of the relatively high-yielding AUD, NZD and ZAR.

]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2483 0 Weekly Forex Market Followup (April 2nd – April 6th 2012) http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2482 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2482#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2482 Continue reading →]]> Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of April 2nd through April 6th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 2nd through April 6th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, April 1st

  • 1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 53.1, as expected.

Monday, April 2nd

  • 1:30am AUD Building Approvals -7.8% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
  • 7:15am CHF Retail Sales 0.8% versus 3.2% expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.1 versus 50.5 expected. The currency was unchanged.
  • 2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.4 versus 53.3 expected. The currency fell overall.

Tuesday, April 3rd

  • 1:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.2%, as expected. The currency fell.
  • 4:30am AUD Cash Rate 4.25%, as expected.
  • 4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that, “were demand conditions to weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy. At today’s meeting, the Board judged the pace of output growth to be somewhat lower than earlier estimated, but also thought it prudent to see forthcoming key data on prices to reassess its outlook for inflation, before considering a further step to ease monetary policy.”
  • 8:30am GBP Construction PMI 56.7 versus 53.6 expected. The currency fell.
  • 6:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, “In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions — including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run — are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.” The currency rose overall.

Wednesday, April 4th

  • 1:30am AUD Trade Balance -0.48B versus 1.12B expected. The currency fell.
  • 8:00am GBP Halifax HPI 2.2% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 8:30am GBP Services PMI 55.3 versus 53.5 expected.
  • 11:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00%, as expected. The currency fell.
  • 12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 209K, as expected. The currency rose overall.
  • 12:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference noted that, “there are inflationary pressures that come from the higher oil prices, from higher indirect taxes in the short term, but inflation expectations are firmly anchored over the medium term. And, given current conditions with respect to output and unemployment – with the latter at a historical high – talking about any exit strategy would, for the time being, be premature.
  • 2:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.0 versus 56.8 expected.

Thursday, April 5th

  • 7:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 237.5B versus last 224.9B. The currency fell.
  • 7:15am CHF CPI 0.6% versus 0.4% expected.
  • 8:30am GBP Manufacturing Production -1.0% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
  • 11:00am GBP Asset Purchase Facility 325B, as expected.
  • 11:00am GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50%, as expected.
  • 2:30pm CAD Building Permits 7.5% versus 2.2% expected. The currency fell.
  • 12:30pm CAD Employment Change 82.3K versus 12.6K expected.
  • 12:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.2% versus 7.5% expected.
  • 12:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 357K versus 355K expected. The currency rose overall.
  • 2:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 63.5 versus 64.8 expected.

Friday, April 6th

  • 12:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 120K versus 211K expected. The currency fell overall.
  • 12:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 8.2% versus 8.3% expected.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.3361 open to a 1.3034 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from an 83.02 open to an 81.56 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.6022 open to a 1.5879 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.0449 open to a 1.0308 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9957 open to a 0.9972 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.8234 open to a 0.8191 close.

]]> http://www.cutlinks.com/?feed=rss2&p=2482 0 Today’s Exchange Rate Forecasts For The Pound Sterling, US Dollar, Euro and South African Rand http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2481 http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2481#comments Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:56:52 +0000 admin http://www.cutlinks.com/?p=2481 Continue reading →]]> The EURO has once again hogged the headlines for all the wrong reasons during today’s session in the currency markets. The European Central Bank made a statement earlier today which confirmed that for the fifth week in succession, it did not move into Europe’s bond markets to prop up the faltering gilts of several debt-burdoned eurozone nations. This goes some of the way to explaining the move out of Spanish and Italian bonds over the last seven days, however, the euro continues to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing following the GBP EUR exchange rate’s break to a new 19-month high of 1.2180.
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<br>The POUND STERLING has struggled to break into positive territory against most of the other sixteen most actively-traded currencies, with the exception of the euro and the high-yielders during today’s session. There was bad news for the UK economy with this morning’s report from Ernst &amp; Young’s ITEM Club, which predicted that the domestic economy will limp to an annualised GDP growth figure of only 0.4% in 2012. Sterling trades with a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias moving forward.
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<br>The US DOLLAR has come under some selling pressure in the markets today, as global stocks showed signs of recovering. This afternoon’s US Retail Sales numbers thrashed expectations, adding to the ‘risk-on’ trading environment, which caused further downside for the safe-haven Greenback. The current GBP USD exchange rate stands at 1.5865 and the Dollar is expected to head into tomorrow’s session on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing.
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<br>The SOUTH AFRICAN RAND has once again endured a poor day in the currency markets, taking the GBP ZAR exchange rate all the way up to 12.7005 on the day. Fears over an apparent economic slowdown in China and the ongoing eurozone debt crisis have caused appetite for risk to seep from the market in recent sessions. With significant potential for the emergence of further ‘bad news’ stories in coming sessions, the South African currency is expected to trade with a NEGATIVE bias in the short-term.
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